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Swedes can become minority in Sweden in 50 years

If the rate of immigration remains the same as in recent years, Swedes can become the minority in their own country by 2065, a fresh study suggests.

If the current level of immigration persists, Swedes will become a minority in their own country in 45 years, according to Finnish researcher Kyösti Tarvainen, an associate professor emeritus in systems analysis at Helsinki’s Aalto University. According to Mr Tarvainen’s model, there will be as many Muslims as native Swedes in 2100.

“The Swedish parliament unanimously decided in 1975 that Sweden is a multicultural country. At that time, more than 40 percent of the immigrants were my compatriots, Finns. The situation has changed: in 2019, 88 per cent of net immigrants were non-Westerners and 52 per cent were Muslims,” Mr Tarvainen writes in the Folkbladet newspaper.

According to Mr Tarvainen, the marked difference is that  Finnish immigrants were quick to assimilate into Swedish society. Today, he argued, the conditions are different as a large proportion of immigrants are not assimilated or successfully integrated. Instead, they form their own areas, commonly referred to as areas of exclusion, vulnerable areas or no-go zones. These are largely parallel societies with a different mindset and way of life.

In Mr Tarvainen’s view, if native Swedes become a minority, the pace of demographic change will probably increase further because most of those who have a foreign background will facilitate the immigration of their own ethnic groups.

While in 2015 there were 7 million 655 thousand native Swedes, 535 thousand Muslims and 557 thousand non-Muslims with an immigrant background living in the Scandinavian country, by 2065 7 million 364 thousand native Swedes, 3 million 903 thousand Muslims and 3 million 791 thousand non-Muslims with an immigrant background will constitute Sweden’s population, the researcher’s analysis projects.


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