“Bosnia and Herzegovina is a powder keg and always has been. The times are such that Moscow is probably happy that another problem has arisen,” believes Pogačnik, an international lawyer. “At this moment, the most worrying scenario is that Vučić could also resort to radical approaches to bring public attention away from events in Serbia. He has quite an extensive network of instigators in the region, from the aforementioned Dodik to Mandić and Knežević in Montenegro, or the situation in Kosovo could flare up again,” warned political analyst Videtič.
The situation in the Western Balkans has recently become much more tense, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the eyes of the international community are focused in particular on Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, who is showing increasingly strong secessionist tendencies. On the 26th of February, Dodik was sentenced to a prison term (one year in prison and a six-year ban on political activity). The political leader of the Bosnian Serbs was sentenced to prison for disregarding the decisions of the High Representative of the international community for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt.
Following the President’s conviction, the Parliament of the Republika Srpska adopted a document calling the verdict a coup d’état. While Dodik was visited in Banja Luka by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić as a show of support and the verdict was criticised as political by Moscow, calls for restraint came from the European Union and the USA to the political actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Subsequently, on the 28th of February, the Republika Srpska National Assembly adopted several laws, including one abolishing the jurisdiction of Bosnia and Herzegovina judicial institutions on the territory of Republika Srpska. In Sarajevo, counter-measures were announced in response to the adopted laws.
The decision made in Banja Luka was condemned by part of the international community as undermining the authority of Bosnia and Herzegovina institutions, and was also accused of undermining the Dayton Peace Agreement. And then, on the 3rd of March, Dodik signed constitutionally controversial laws banning the operation of Bosnia and Herzegovina judicial and security institutions (including the court and prosecutor’s office) on the territory of the Republika Srpska entity.
Dodik: Bosniaks want military conflict
On the 6th of March, after his meeting with Dodik, Vučić directly accused Sarajevo of trying to destroy Republika Srpska. Dodik, who is under investigation by the Bosnia and Herzegovina prosecutor’s office on suspicion of attacking the constitutional order, accused the Bosniaks of wanting a military conflict. On the same day, Brussels warned that the laws enacted by Republika Srpska banning Bosnia and
Herzegovina judicial and security institutions from operating in the entity undermine the country’s constitutional and legal order and threaten the fundamental freedoms of its citizens. On the 7th of March, the United Nations Security Council also discussed Bosnia and Herzegovina. No decision was taken at the closed-door meeting.
The international community: the Republika Srpska’s moves are to blame for instability
Russia has expressed the view that the conviction of Dodik has exacerbated the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while most other members of the Security Council believe that the instability is due to the moves of Republika Srpska. On the same day, Vučić told the press that Russian President Vladimir Putin can clearly see attempts by the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina to overthrow Dodik, and the media reported that a day after the Republika Srpska enacted constitutionally controversial laws, tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are rising. According to some media reports, Serbians have left the office of the state-run agency Sipa in Banja Luka at the request of the entity’s interior ministry. The Bosniak member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, Denis Bećirović, called for the reinforcement of EUFOR and NATO forces, while the laws are being reviewed by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
International military mission EUFOR announces reinforcement of its presence in the country
On the same day, the media reported that the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina had suspended the implementation of the controversial Republika Srpska laws in an extraordinary session pending a final decision. On the 8th of March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Dodik’s actions are endangering the security of the country (on the 10th of March, he also said that Washington is determined to prevent the break-up of Bosnia and Herzegovina). Meanwhile, the international military mission EUFOR announced a reinforced presence in the country. On the 10th of March, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced that NATO would not allow a security vacuum in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He made his statement in Sarajevo.
Tensions also escalate in Serbia – student protests sweep the country
Things have also been escalating in Serbia in recent months. Namely, on the 1st of November 2024, the canopy of a train station in Novi Sad collapsed, killing 15 people. Since then, protests have been taking place all over the country, led by students organising various protest activities. Since the mass protests began, several important developments have taken place in the country. Three suspects have been indicted in connection with the Novi Sad accident. Also, on the same day (the 4th of March), a large-scale brawl took place in the Serbian Assembly, with protesters throwing eggs at the Assembly building. On the 7th of March, a general strike followed. On the 11th of March, students blocked the entrance to the national media outlet RTS building after a presenter on the evening news show described the protesters as “scum”. Meanwhile, in Novi Sad, students also blocked entry to the building of the regional public broadcaster, Radio-Television of Vojvodina.
Commentary by international lawyer Miha Pogačnik:
“There is clearly a regime in Serbia that people are not very happy with. It is essentially Serbia’s internal affairs. Whether or not Serbia is ready for the European path is another important question. The current regime has ‘satellite’ links with Russia. At the same time, there is the question of what the ‘satellite’ link is between Serbia and the regime in Ljubljana (Dodik, the head of Republika Srpska, is in between). There is no doubt that things are delicate and are developing in a dangerous and wrong direction, as I have pointed out on several occasions. An unstable state like Bosnia and Herzegovina is problematic in itself, including from the point of view of international law (namely, Bosnia and Herzegovina is an independent and sovereign state; care must be taken not to interfere with its independence and sovereignty), because it was created in very strange circumstances, at the time of the break-up of Yugoslavia.
Back then, it was recognised by the international community (statehood), but at the same time, there was an arms embargo, etc. If a country is independent and sovereign, then it has the right to self-defence. That was the first big complication, followed by the Dayton Agreement, which is a ‘legal monster’ that is very difficult to read and understand, even, in my opinion, for very good international lawyers, and is quite impractical. All this, together with the three nationalities, makes for an explosive affair (‘powder keg’). Bosnia and Herzegovina has always been like that. The times are such that it probably suits Moscow that another problem has arisen (Russia is losing a huge number of troops and has not achieved any outstanding results in three years). Ukraine cannot be subdued by Russia by conventional means, and it probably suits Putin for another problem to emerge.
In the meantime, they have also had to leave Syria… The Kremlin is losing power globally, but they are far from harmless and powerless, and should not be underestimated. And given the traditional alliance between Moscow and Belgrade (with Banja Luka and Ljubljana involved, too), things can get quite dangerous. I hope Slovenia does not get caught up in this story. But Slovenians should be more interested in Slovenia and the quality of life here than in what is happening in Belgrade. But I am worried about what is happening, especially in combination with Viktor Orbán, who is the only statesman in the European Union who is not anti-Russian (alongside Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico). And if things start going in the wrong direction, this could start to seriously worry Slovenia too… Times are bad, and in bad times, bad men fall. And you have to be prepared for the bad times.
This means: defence capability, security capability, national unity, unity in foreign affairs, otherwise you can be a very easy target. I am not saying that anything will happen, but you have to be prepared and have the necessary defence training. At least some basic preparedness must be there. For me, the information that Slovenia is not capable of defending itself (on its own small territory) means that it is an easy target. Slovenia should show some seriousness in terms of arming itself, because you cannot count on others if you are not serious yourself. Slovenia should prepare and arm itself as much as possible for the defensive, so that it becomes problematic for a potential aggressor (in theory), so that it is no longer an easy target, and at the same time, agree with those countries that we are close to (Croatia is absolutely one of them) on a common strategy on how we would behave in a worst-case scenario.”
Commentary by political analyst Milan Videtič:
“The escalation of the situation in the Balkans, and here I am thinking in particular of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is the result of a completely misguided policy of the European Union and the former democratic administration in the USA and a misunderstanding of the region by a blinded West. Leaving aside the fact that the passivity of recent years has led to strong Russian influence in this most explosive region in Europe, what stands out above all is the stupidity of the West, which, in the last elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, forced through a coalition of social-criminal-rainbow and separatist forces within Bosnia and Herzegovina. I am referring here to the so-called Bosniak Troika (SDP with its leader Nikšić, NiP with its notorious and, according to Bosnian media, criminally implicated foreign minister Konaković, and the “rainbow” Fort, leader of the NS party), combined with Dodik’s SNSD and Čović’s HDZ BiH.
Add to this the high representative who is lost in time and space, the German Christian Schmidt, and you have the perfect recipe for disaster. It was clear to insiders even then that Dodik, with the strong backing of Russia, the tacit support of the former US ambassador (from the Democratic political option) and the historical aspirations of SANU (the Serbian Academy of Science and Art) and the SPC (Serbian Orthodox Church), and with the funding of the tycoons, would not have a difficult job in terms of causing unrest in the region. A paradox which, at the moment, seems to have unexpectedly lost momentum with the arrival of the new US administration. Why unexpected? Because he was convinced that, with the arrival of the Trump administration, he would be able to finish the job he had started, that is, the dismemberment of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Unfortunately, the Bosnian Croats also fell for Dodik’s ploy, as they were always looking at their own interest, i.e. a (minimum) third entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina (this requires an amendment to the Dayton Agreement), and thus blew wind in his sails. It now appears that time is running out for this incendiary policy of Dodik and that the game is up for him. The court decisions, the lack of support from the international community, the lack of motivation of the people of Republika Srpska to take up arms again, are elements that are taking the last cards in this game out of his hand. That is not to say that this political ‘sick mind’ will not conjure up isolated incidents. On the other side of the Drina River, in Serbia, it is just as lively. The untouchable regime of Aleksandar Vučić has been seriously shaken in the space of a month.
And it was not the incompetent opposition (affectionately called the Djilas-Šolak apparatus) that shook it, but the student army, which has had enough of crime, corruption and nepotism. Unfortunately, the direct reason for the youth taking to the streets was tragic – the death of 15 innocent people at the Novi Sad train station. I think that the state top in Serbia will be more resilient than Dodik, but I am still convinced that there is no longer any chance of political survival. Despite the quite enviable international support that Vučić still enjoys. At the moment, the most worrying scenario is that Vučić could also resort to radical approaches to bring public attention away from events in Serbia. He has quite an extensive network of instigators in the region, from the aforementioned Dodik to Mandić and Knežević in Montenegro, or the situation in Kosovo could flare up again.
In short, the Balkans are once again a matchstick, but I hope that the determination and intransigence of the international community will be stronger this time. As far as Slovenia is concerned, I hope that despite the strong support of influential individuals for this ‘Serbian world’, there will be no serious consequences (a refugee wave or something similar). But the fact that there are such individuals in Slovenia is embarrassing enough for the country’s reputation. Europe will have to be more active in solving the problems in its region, together with its partners on the other side of the Atlantic. So far, this blindness has done no good. The least that can be expected is a serious approach to EU enlargement, which means serious work by our Commissioner, Marta Kos, and, above all, her publicly stated position on instigators such as Dodik. We do not know this position yet, and what is more, I am afraid that the Slovenian power centres, which are in business with the Balkan instigators, have given her so many pay-offs in the past that the Commissioner could have a serious personal problem in dealing honestly with this difficult issue.”
Domen Mezeg
