The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly raised its forecast for this year’s economic growth for Slovenia. For this year, the forecast has risen by 2.4 percentage points – to 6.3 percent. In May, the IMF predicted a 4.5 percent growth of GDP for our country for next year; however, in a report published on Tuesday, it changed its forecast and estimated that the growth would amount to 4.6 percent. By raising this year’s forecast for Slovenia, the IMF approached the autumn forecast of the Institute of the Republic of Slovenia of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development. Namely, in September, the Institute set the forecast for our country at 6.1 percent for this year and 4.7 percent for next year.
The International Monetary Fund set Slovenia’s inflation at 1.4 percent this year, and 1.8 percent next year. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5 percent this year and lower to 4.3 percent next year, according to a report on the global economic outlook that was published on Tuesday.
The IMF estimates that the global economic recovery after the novel coronavirus pandemic is continuing. However, because the pandemic is resurging due to the aggressive delta variant of the coronavirus, economic recovery is losing momentum. Uncertainties exacerbate disruptions in supply chains that drive inflation in many countries. Therefore, the IMF slightly lowered its assessment of global economic growth compared to July. It forecast a 5.9 percent growth for the global economy for this year, which is one percentage point less than before, and for next year, it has maintained its growth forecast at 4.9 percent.
For the Euro area, it forecast economic growth of 5 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2022. Germany is expected to record 3.1 growth in gross domestic product this year and 4.6 percent next year. The French economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, and the Italian economy at 5.8 percent and 4.2 percent.
In its May forecast, the IMF forecast a 3.6 percent growth for Slovenia in 2023, but in the latest forecast, it does not specifically mention the year 2023. In May, the IMF stated, among other things, that Slovenia had responded to the negative consequences of the covid-19 epidemic with swift, comprehensive and well-coordinated measures. The IMF also warned against delays in vaccination, Slovenian Press Agency reports.
Sara Kovač
