When US President Donald Trump made it clear that Europe would not be able to rely on the US military machine forever, that caused quite a stir. After USAID cut off development aid to left-wing NGOs, not only Brussels but also the Slovenian government found itself in a quandary.
In recent days, the leader of the Slovenian Democratic Party (Slovenska demokratska stranka – SDS), Janez Janša, has addressed the Slovenian and European public on several occasions about what is happening in Ukraine and also about the inconsistency of European policy, which, in his view, still has a lot of financial reserves in terms of defence. The same applies to Slovenia. Here, however, Prime Minister Robert Golob finds himself in a rather unenviable situation, since he has the ‘peace-loving’ Left party (Levica) in his coalition, which is opposed to Slovenia’s membership in NATO, while the Social Democrats party (Socialni Demokrati – SD) does not yet know what to do itself. One thing is clear: it will be very difficult for him to withdraw the funds for the green transition without running a high risk of Jenull’s “political cyclists” knocking on his door again. Who knows, maybe that’s partly why the government has closed its press conferences, which are no longer accessible for Zoom participation until further notice due to a “serious malfunction”.
Macron has put his foot down
Let’s first look at what happened last week. After the “wake-up call” given by the US Vice-President, JD Vance, to the European political public, the European Union was warned last weekend by SDS President Janez Janša of the need for new priorities. Interestingly, the response came very soon. French President Emmanuel Macron made a high-profile speech on the eve of the EU summit, in which he even mentioned the possibility of deploying French troops to Ukraine, and he had many tough words to say about Russia, regardless of some of the traditional alliances between the two countries throughout history. “The Russian threat exists and affects us all. Who can believe that they will stop at Ukraine?” said Macron, who was a bit more conciliatory towards Trump. Apparently, one of the most influential political leaders in Europe also understands that things have become quite serious, because he mentioned that we should also be prepared for the scenario where the US would not be “on our side”. And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already responded by announcing the possibility of loans to strengthen the defence of EU Member States. It is true that one swallow does not a summer make, but it is a promising start. The European Union has so far failed to develop a defence alliance that could compete with NATO.
Postponing commitments to the future
It is obvious, however, that Washington’s new policy and the EU’s response to it have already cornered Prime Minister Robert Golob, who had earlier made sure that Slovenia threw four million taxpayers’ euros out of the window by cancelling an already concluded contract for the purchase of Boxer armoured vehicles, while, ironically enough, starting to negotiate for the purchase of the notorious Patria armoured vehicles, even at a much higher price than the first Janša government did twenty years ago. It was that deal that subsequently led to the conviction and imprisonment of Janez Janša. But the Patria deal was, in fact, only the trigger for this, and the vindictive motives of those involved in the Sistemska Tehnika company deal were also behind it. Well, Golob now has to work very hard in front of both the European and Slovenian public, because he has to be very careful about what he says. For example, before the EU summit last week, he announced that Slovenia would prepare a scenario for an increase in expenditure before the NATO summit in The Hague at the end of June. The government will present the scenario to both the National Assembly and the public before then. According to the defence ministry, which has been headed since last year by the former head of the Freedom Movement party (Gibanje Svoboda) parliamentary group, veterinarian Borut Sajovic, defence spending is estimated at 1.53 percent of GDP for this year and 1.6 percent in 2026.
The USA on one side, the Left party on the other
But this is still a long way from the 2 percent threshold, which Slovenia would reach, according to Golob’s plans, only in 2030. After all, this is what Trump’s security adviser Mike Walz told Golob via the X network, saying that this was unacceptable. But Waltz is not just some guy: he has been a member of the US Congress since last year, is a former US Army Special Forces officer, and he became the National Security Adviser when Trump came to the White House. It is clear, however, that Golob refuses to promise anything, because almost every time he makes such a promise, he is heavily criticised not only by the Left party, but by practically the entire media space. For example, the show Tarča (Target), which invited two representatives of the Left party as guests: in addition to Matej T. Vatovec, there was also the “independent MP” Miha Kordiš (because the “depoliticised” RTV has to give him free advertising). Television show host Erika Žnidaršič started the conversation with a question about the bizarre proposal of the Resni.ca party (the Truth) of Zoran Stevanović, which is considered to be a similar representative of Moscow’s interests as the Left party, to hold a referendum on whether the state would even fulfil its commitment of two percent for defence, which it has been breaking for years. But we already had a referendum on NATO shortly before accession, and back then, the majority supported Slovenia’s entry into NATO.
The NATO summit is forecasting a GDP rate of 3.5 percent
At a press conference on Thursday, the 6th of March, SDS President Janez Janša reminded everyone that defence funding should be raised sooner and to a much higher level than 2 percent of GDP. “This is a distant promise, always made by a left-wing government so that nothing has to be done this year or next year,” Janša was critical. Experience also shows that the deadlines and promises announced so far regarding defence funding have almost never been realised. “According to my information, a much higher share is being prepared for the NATO summit in June this year, i.e. 3 or 3.5 percent, and the deadline for the realisation of this share will be much earlier than 2030. Because even if we look at the reason for which the panic has arisen and for which everyone is now deciding on the increase in armaments, it is clear to me that this reason exists today, not in 2030. In other words, the danger, to use military jargon, is immediate, not potential,” Janša explained. He also warned that additional funding for defence should not come at the expense of the existing way of life in the Western world, “because more important than money and, consequently, the weapons we buy with that money, for the defence of a country, is the willingness of its people to defend that country. Because if there are no people willing to defend something, then neither money, nor the state, nor weapons help anything,” he illustrated.
Government should review public tenders for the ‘green transition’ and gender equality
As Janša noted, there are budgetary reserves that could allow an immediate increase in defence funding both in Slovenia and the European Union, but the problem is not so much the funds, but rather the irrationality of the defence system. “They produce five or six different weapons systems for the same purpose, which means more expensive production, more expensive maintenance and less efficiency in use. Meanwhile, the USA, China or the Russian Federation, for example, have one or two weapons systems each, which is significantly cheaper to produce, to use and to maintain,” noted the defence minister from the time of Slovenia’s fight for independence. “The first thing we advise the government to do is to look at all the tenders that the ministries have on the table for all sorts of studies, for gender studies, for studies on greater inclusiveness, for the empowerment of NGOs,” he said. If these funds are redirected to the defence budget, Janša believes that we will have significant money to significantly strengthen the Slovenian army, but he also sees opportunities in creating a leaner state administration, in addition to using funds initially intended for the green transition. In particular, he noted, he was shocked by the number of employees in the Ministry for Solidarity-Based Future. But now it is the Prime Minister’s turn, and the question is whether he will dare to take the risk.
Not only Ukraine, but also Bosnia and Herzegovina!
After the highest Bosnian Serb official, Milorad Dodik, was convicted of disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republika Srpska authorities began to escalate the situation. Under the Dayton Accords, Republika Srpska is one of two entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina, the other being the Bosnian-Herzegovinian Federation. The leadership of Republika Srpska does not take this into account, but wants to suspend the validity of the functioning of the joint Bosnia and Herzegovina bodies on its territory, which is constitutionally controversial and could lead to a new armed conflict. Apparently, Dodik feels emboldened by the strong support of the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić, and also of the Russian autocrat, Vladimir Putin. However, we must not forget that in the past, the Americans, at least the extreme wing of the American Democrats, have also supported this kind of hooliganism. After all, there has been very weak support for Ukraine since the time of US President Barack Obama, when pro-Russian separatists began to occupy it, regardless of the fact that the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 guarantees respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons (after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited so many nuclear weapons that it was ranked third in the world in terms of the number of nuclear weapons!) The US administration at the time, however, argued that the memorandum did not give any security guarantees for breaches of the memorandum, while Putin even explained that the Ukraine of today had nothing more to do with the memorandum, because it was a completely new country. In any case, after 30 years, Bosnia and Herzegovina seems to be turning into a powder keg again. With Putin in the background.
There is one other thing to remember: at the beginning of the 1990s, Ukraine had a large number of its own members in the ranks of the Blue Helmets, that is, the United Nations troops, who were also active during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Gašper Blažič
