“Here comes a new order from Moscow. Prepared by Juri, of course,” Janša responded to an invitation to the Peace Institute (Mirovni Inštitut) Forum, where a former member of the Social Democrats party (Socialni Demokrati – SD) and former MP Aurelio Juri will be speaking. It is important to note that he is the first signatory of two open letters that were launched to the Slovenian public in the last year, which actually advocate for the disarmament of Ukraine under the guise of deceptive pacifism.
The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has in the past expressed his regret at the collapse of the Soviet Union, even calling it “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” His desire to rehabilitate a kind of “Soviet Union,” or at least a Eurasian Union, has long been known. The project would, of course, also include Ukraine. When Donbas and Crimea happened in 2014, Russia was surveying the terrain. It was checking the West’s reaction and, at the same time, immunising it, while preparing for new, bolder military ventures. Then, in February last year, came the full-scale invasion. The regime probably tried to cut off the east and south of the occupied country and establish a puppet government in the remaining parts (Kyiv and its surroundings), but their plans fell flat. At the moment, Russia’s military efforts are no longer focused on seizing the whole of Ukraine. Maintaining the state of war is closely linked to the Putin regime, which, if defeated, faces a dismal collapse. This does not mean, however, that territorial appetites are already buried…
What Russia desperately wants at the moment is to have a temporary peace, a “half-time break” of sorts, and the Ukrainian side is not ready to accept that. If it were to accept Putin’s peace, Ukraine would need the steely security guarantees of third countries; otherwise, a ceasefire would make no sense. But there are no guarantees in sight… At the same time, Ukraine has sacrificed too many lives and too much effort to simply give up part of its territory to Russia… Now, with the prospect of a counter-offensive and a more favourable outcome to the war, and perhaps even peace negotiations on more favourable terms for Ukraine, this is not the moment to agree to “peaceful” appeals. This would only give Putin’s military machine the opportunity to strengthen, the Russian army the opportunity to breathe a sigh of relief, and the “beast,” thus strengthened, an opportunity to “bite” even harder… Perhaps as soon as in a few years’ time… It is in light of this that we should also understand the various open letters calling for “peace” that has appeared in public in the past year, which indirectly call for the disarmament of Ukraine, which is reminiscent of the early 1990s in our country….
At the same time, the people writing these letters are also trying to intimidate everyone else with the Russian nuclear threat and keep talking about a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia: “The heavy offensive tanks on the Ukrainian-Russian front further open the danger of a direct confrontation between Russia and the West on our, European soil. The speculation of military experts that a nuclear war is unlikely to happen is no guarantee of security.” It should be made clear that if Russia had serious intentions when it came to the nuclear threat, it could also blow up a nuclear power plant. It certainly has the technical capacity, given that it is destroying the energy infrastructure throughout the occupied country. But the Russian elite is aware that this would not stop the Ukrainians and would plunge Russia into even greater foreign policy isolation… The worst consequences of such unwise action would indeed be experienced by the Russians themselves. The rulers have their families, their luxuries, and their comforts. Why would they want to give that up?
“If you want peace, prepare for war!”
Why would they put their own lives and their own families in danger and at risk of war? They know that NATO is superior to them in terms of conventional weapons, and Russia is not the only one that has nuclear weapons. Its use also requires a certain procedure and does not depend on a single person in the Kremlin… The US nuclear weapons are also stored in several European countries… The only real option is for Ukraine (with the help of Poland and the West) to defeat Russia and deter it from new ventures for another decade… The Russian regime understands only the language of power. The Kremlin is like a beast that bites when it smells that the victim is vulnerable and weak. It is also worth noting that Russia completely ignored the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity in return for the country giving up its nuclear weapons. The Peace Institute’s invitation to the Forum should also be understood in light of all of the above. In it, the authors complain about the “militarisation of the whole European Union” and the “increase in military budgets,” and give the example of peace-building initiatives around the world, etc.
The famous ancient saying, “If you want peace, prepare for war,” is very relevant here. The content of the invitation is permeated by Putin’s desire for a militarily weak Europe, which would be easy prey for Moscow’s appetites and incapable of countering Russian aggression. Moreover, the authors of the letter ignore Russia’s responsibility for the war and actually attribute it to the US, stating, “Say NO to endless US wars.” The slogan “Fund the needs of the people, not the war machine” is worth as much as the hippie slogan “Make love, not war.” Security is one of the basic needs of all people, which, unfortunately, is precisely what the ‘war machine’ provides. At the same time, the authors of the Peace Institute’s invitation to the Forum also highlight the German petition for the disarmament of Ukraine. It is important to remember that the German authorities are not entirely sincere in their intentions to help Ukraine. Germany is only slowly giving up its energy and emotional dependence on Russia and is quietly hoping for a little more of the post-war “business as usual”… But the fact is that there is no going back. Justice is waiting for Putin and company – at The Hague.
Domen Mezeg
