Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine has clearly demonstrated how important it is for European countries to strengthen their defence capabilities, some people are still reluctant to increase defence spending – even now. This includes Prime Minister Robert Golob, who stressed ahead of Monday’s informal meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels that Slovenia is not considering an increase in spending and is sticking to its plan to raise defence spending to 2 percent by 2030.
In light of this, it should be noted that NATO allies agreed at the Wales Summit in 2014 that defence spending would reach two percent of GDP by 2024, and even agreed in the summer of 2023 that two percent of GDP would be a minimum threshold, but not the final target. Nevertheless, according to the Slovenian Ministry of Defence, defence expenditure is estimated at 1.53 percent of GDP in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026.
Golob reluctant to increase defence spending, Kallas insists on more than 2 percent of GDP
“Slovenia has long had a very clear programme for meeting its existing NATO commitments, i.e. to reach 2 percent of GDP spending by 2030. For the time being, this is the only commitment we have,” the Slovenian Prime Minister said on Monday, according to the Slovenian Press Agency (STA), adding that it was not so easy to speculate on how much the expenditure would be. “It is easy for some politicians to just suggest certain percentages, but in the end, this means billions that have to be taken from somewhere,” he said. He added that at the moment, the government is “happy with what is set out in the budgets for this year and next year” and that it is not considering any increase in expenditure in the short term. “Maybe this will be a challenge for the coming years, but at the moment, we are staying where we are.” However, EU foreign policy spokeswoman Kaja Kallas stressed that the current target of two percent of GDP for defence is not sufficient.
Strengthening defence capabilities and their financing at the EU level was at the centre of Monday’s informal talks. Golob said that we are betting “above all on the military industry of the future, with advanced technologies such as space technologies and cyber-security, but above all, air defence.” Regarding calls to change the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) funding policy so that more funding would go to security and defence, he said that the EIB was set up for other purposes. It is also worth noting that Slovenia did not join the letter to EIB President Nadia Calvino, European Council President Antonio Costa and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in which the leaders of 19 EU Member States called for an adjustment of the EIB financing policy in order to protect the whole continent against current and future threats.
EU diplomatic chief on the same side as Trump
The European Union is increasingly aware of the importance of investing in defence. After the President of the USA, Donald Trump rebuked European allies for under-investing in defence and even raised the possibility that the USA would no longer defend members that fail to meet their obligations, in the second half of January, European diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas also announced that the EU must increase its defence spending to “prepare for the worst” and “defend itself” against a belligerent Russia. In 2024, she explained, EU Member States together spent an average of 1.9 percent of GDP on defence, while Russia spent 9 percent. With intelligence information that Russia could test the EU’s self-defence readiness in three to five years, and the worrying comparison that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the 27 countries combined can produce in 12 months, she concluded that President Trump is right when he says that we are not spending enough.
Would some people prefer to learn Russian?
Although NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte admits that there is no imminent threat to the Allies, the Allies are, in his words, moving “full speed ahead” towards the transatlantic alliance. “We are not at war, but we not at peace either,” he was clear recently. He stressed that the rapprochement between NATO and the EU is an objective with the goal to respond to the Kremlin’s “destabilising campaigns”, as well as to threats coming from Iran, China, cyber-attacks and nuclear proliferation. “We are safe now, we may not be safe in five years,” he warned, adding that if defence spending does not increase, Europeans would have to “start Russian language courses or emigrate to New Zealand”.
Of course, one does not have to be Einstein to see that the security picture on the old continent has changed drastically since Russia invaded Ukraine. Without security, we have nothing, but it comes at a cost. By spending more, Slovenia, like other EU Member States, can help itself to respond to security threats, including cyber threats, and deter possible future aggressions.
While Europe, whose arms sector faces the problem of being too small, too fragmented and too slow, more than obviously remains dependent on the USA for its security, even French President Emmanuel Macron is aware of the situation Europe could find itself in if our US ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean. “What will we do if they send their fighter planes from the Atlantic to the Pacific?” he pointed out in January, calling on Europe to wake up and increase its defence spending to reduce its security dependence on the USA. This is something that our Prime Minister and the whole of Slovenian politics should reflect on. The fact that we are among those who are still not investing two percent of GDP certainly does not increase our credibility within the alliance, nor will it be to our advantage if we are among the few who insist that two percent of GDP is quite enough. The need for some Member States to ensure that at least 2 percent of GDP is spent on defence was underlined on Monday by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who added that there must be an awareness of the need to strengthen European defence. Kallas also advocates closer cooperation with NATO and allies such as the UK.
N. Ž.