Two years ago, on the 24th of February 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of the sovereign neighbouring country of Ukraine, with bizarre excuses about “demilitarisation and denazification”. The aggressor has not achieved his key objectives, but the invaded country is still at war, and it does not look as if it will end any time soon. We spoke to a great expert in the field, a defence scientist, a long-time politician and diplomat, Jelko Kacin, about the significance of the Russian invasion for Slovenia, Europe and the world, and about its future, consequences, and so on.
“Ukraine will not fall, but the Russian Federation will, as it has always done and as it already did in 2014 when it went to Crimea, and even before that, when it tried to destabilise Ukraine. Russia will undoubtedly try to destabilise the situation in Kyiv, in Ukraine, in order to pursue its strategic objectives. Their goal is to overthrow the current Ukrainian government and establish a pro-Moscow regime,” believes defence expert, long-time diplomat and politician Jelko Kacin.
The conversation started with the question of the USA, European and Slovenian aid to Ukraine and whether they are doing enough to help the invaded country. Kacin responded: “Europe and Slovenia are not even doing enough for their own security and their own defence. They are not doing enough for their own secure future,” he believes. They are also less credible in their attitude towards Ukraine.
The latter urgently needs additional military assistance. Due to the complications in the USA, where the process of approving additional funds for military assistance to Ukraine is still ongoing, deliveries of the necessary military equipment, especially ammunition, are insufficient, seriously jeopardising all that Slovenia, together with the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO), has invested in the defence of Ukraine so far. Kacin believes that “taking the situation more seriously on the Western side” is, therefore, urgently needed. He then mentioned the United Nations Security Council, of which Slovenia has become a non-permanent member. This is an institution of the UN which deals with global problems. “Unfortunately, the world’s attitude towards Ukraine is far more ignorant than the awareness of North America (Canada and the USA) and European allies and EU members when it comes to the importance of Ukraine’s survival for the foreseeable future, for the balance of power in the world and, above all, for the state of democracy,” the long-time diplomat warned.
In the UN Security Council, both China and the Russian Federation have too many partners who, for different reasons, “look away” or support China’s and the Russian Federation’s positions on Ukraine, so this is not a place where this problem can be solved. Kacin: “Ukraine will not fall, but the Russian Federation will, as it has always done and as it already did in 2014 when it went to Crimea, and even before that, when it tried to destabilise Ukraine.” However, the problem is that the capital, Kyiv, is in close proximity to the Belarusian border. We keep forgetting that the attack on Ukraine also came from the north, from Belarusian territory. That is where the Russian troops came from, and they even came into the suburbs of Kyiv. Russia will undoubtedly try to destabilise the situation in Kyiv, in Ukraine, in order to pursue its strategic objectives. Their aim, however, is to overthrow the current Ukrainian authorities and to establish a pro-Moscow regime, which was already in place before.
Arms and ammunition must be provided to Ukraine immediately
At the moment, the Russian Federation is about to hold its presidential elections, the incumbent President Putin is running for re-election, and the constitution has been amended… If his health will allow it, we can count on Putin to continue to be head of state beyond 2030, which means more terms of office for democratic European countries in the EU. At the same time, he is still counting on being able to destabilise not only Ukraine but also every single member of the EU and the NATO alliance. However, in Kacin’s view, no major shift can be expected until he is sworn in at the beginning of his next term. Therefore, the situation in Ukraine is really critical at the moment, and the necessary military aid (arms and ammunition) must be provided immediately. If Putin’s replacement were to happen for certain reasons (such as death), it would still take several months or even a year before the new government took matters into its own hands.
That would also be an opportunity to try to remedy the problems “inherited from the previous government.” In such a case, a compromise solution could also be sought (from the Kremlin’s point of view when it comes to Ukraine). At the moment, however, the main objective of the Kremlin, Putin and the Russian Federation is to keep the occupied territories of Ukraine and to destabilise it further so that the liberation of the territories cannot take place. As a result, they would then be able to ‘explain their successes’ in a way that the public in the Russian Federation can accept. The discussion then turned to the fact that Slovenia still does not spend two per cent of its GDP on military expenditure. Kacin: “At the moment, Slovenia is spending about 1.3 percent of GDP on defence, which is simply not enough.” Kacin pointed out that the situation in the world has changed so much that we need to contribute much more to our own and common security, which we guarantee on the basis of the principle of collective defence.
It is irresponsible to leisurely observe what is happening in the East from a safe distance
Kacin stressed that Slovenia was still lagging behind but that the countries on the front line, in particular Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania, faced a real risk of conflict with the Russian Federation. This is why there is a much greater awareness on their side, which is also due to their “terrible historical experience”. Kacin cited the example of the new NATO member, Finland, which won the war when it was invaded by the Red Army but still lost a large part of its territory (Karelia remained within the Soviet Union), while the Baltic countries were effectively occupied by the Red Army in the period between the two wars and until democratisation. These are countries that were annexed at the beginning of World War II, and that had decades of Russian occupation and socialism in its worst form, which is why these countries, which have a population of even less than two million, or just over two million, and “lie next to a huge Russian bear that can always paw at them,” are all the more aware of what is going on.
“Breaking the unity of the EU and NATO is the Kremlin’s strategic goal”
“At this moment, the USA’s role is extremely important, because it also provides a nuclear umbrella for the EU,” Kacin explained. In light of the rapidly changing global forces (China is becoming more powerful), it is very important at this moment to maintain a stable situation and ensure stability in the future by deterring further provocations. In addition to the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, the long-standing politician also highlighted the Romanian minority in Ukraine. In light of this, it should be borne in mind that individual, currently insignificant political parties in Hungary and Romania are loudly pointing out that, in the event of the break-up of Ukraine, some parts of Ukraine should also be incorporated into both their respective countries. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend! This is the way in which the Kremlin has always known how to work and has always worked. It has always sought to destabilise democratic countries and to promote that part of the political space which can benefit its long-standing, eternal imperial designs.”
Wherever the Kremlin sees an opportunity, it will try to seize it. Kacin believes that any problem in the EU suits Moscow. The fact is that the EU is applying sanctions against Russia, and, as a result, Moscow is very interested in seeing political changes in individual EU and Alliance members so that unity can be weakened in this way. Kacin: “Breaking the unity of the EU and NATO is the Kremlin’s strategic goal and will continue to be in the future.” But it is a fact that Russian aggression against the EU and NATO has also acted as an “antidote” and has brought them closer together. The EU is spending significantly more on defence and security than it did 20 years ago, and we were actually forced into this by the Russian Federation, or Putin personally, with his assessment that the West would not make a move – and here at least, he was wrong.
Some Western Balkan leaders openly flirt with Putin
For years, NATO has also been providing direct security in the territories along the borders of the Russian Federation, which are most vulnerable to attempts at destabilisation, as well as economic and political pressure. In light of this, Putin has made a strategic mistake which he will never admit to, and the Russian Federation will be his hostage throughout, and the provocations on his part will continue. That is why it is imperative that all EU and Alliance Member States, including Slovenia, behave much more responsibly towards their own future, their own security, stability and predictability, as well as collective defence, and deterrence in particular, not by speaking out in the UN Security Council, but by making concrete investments and reinforcing the defence and security forces at home. Wherever the Kremlin feels it can weaken unity, it will try to do just that, both in Moldova and in the Western Balkans, where Russia also has a strong influence and where individual leaders in the Western Balkans are not only ‘flirting’, but also work directly with Putin.
“Russia’s presence in the region is disturbing, dangerous and should not be underestimated,” warned Kacin. The discussion also turned to the fact that France could also offer a nuclear shield to Europe, while individual European countries are considering developing these capabilities, either jointly or individually, to deter the Russian threat. There is also the question of whether the popular Article 5 of the NATO Treaty would be replaced by the somewhat weaker Article 42/7 of the EU Treaty. Kacin believes that Russia’s aggressive policy towards a democratic Europe has made both the EU and the Alliance countries much more aware of what is happening and compelled them to work much more closely together. As an example, the long-standing politician cited the joint fleets of aerial refuelling aircraft, with a number of countries, such as Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, etc., being involved in the cooperation. In this way, forms of cooperation are also possible for all other forms of deterrence, including nuclear weapons.
We should consider reintroducing compulsory military service
Finally, the discussion turned to the possible reintroduction of conscription and the possible development of a domestic military industry since, in times of war, it is more difficult to supply the necessary items from abroad (e.g. the USA or South Korea) due to supply chain disruptions, etc., as the case of Ukraine shows. Kacin: “Regarding the provision of the necessary number of troops in each Member State – all Western countries have considerable problems with this (some greater, some smaller). But if sufficient financial resources are provided, then it is possible to increase the peacetime composition of each country’s army.” Whether this also requires the introduction of various forms of military training for the wider population is, Kacin believes, a matter of the individual historical experiences of political cultures and, of course, the threat level. The closer individual countries are to the Russian Federation, the more fear there is, and the more realistic the assessment that more needs to be done.
As a result, these countries will be the first to follow this path of ensuring additional training and sufficient military personnel. The more distant countries will try to avoid this for some time to come. Above all, all countries are keen to see positive experiences in countries where such a shift will be achieved. These countries will also be the subject of studies and the transfer of positive experiences to other EU and NATO Member States. At the same time, Kacin believes that Slovenia does not have a real military industry. Individual companies produce only individual components. In his view, much more can be achieved by jointly procuring a large number of individual systems, which would make things more efficient and allow for more effective mutual cooperation and collective defence. Kacin: “If we use the same systems, then they are much more compatible, and we can also ensure adequate training and logistic supply, which brings huge savings.” And the more Europe is prepared to provide for itself, the more resilient we will be.
Domen Mezeg
