Between the 11th and the 14th of November, the Parsifal agency conducted a public opinion poll for Nova24TV, measuring support for political parties and the current government. The results showed that just under two-thirds of respondents do not support the government. The news is not good for the largest government party either. The latter is well behind the largest opposition party – the Slovenian Democratic Party (Slovenska demokratska stranka – SDS), which would receive 25.8 percent of the vote if the elections were to be held this Sunday, and 39.3 percent of the votes among the already-decided voters. Meanwhile, the ruling Freedom Movement party (Gibanje Svoboda) would receive 12.7 percent of the vote and 19.4 percent of the vote among those who have already decided who they would vote for.
The public opinion polls are increasingly harsh towards the Golob government and the ruling party, the Freedom Movement. The failure to keep their promises, the affairs, the doing everything you reproached someone else for, and other reckless actions are taking their toll in the form of an ever-increasing number of disgruntled individuals, so much so that even the power networks now seem to want a change of power with new faces.
When asked which party they would vote for if the elections to the National Assembly were to be held this Sunday, the largest number of respondents expressed their support for the SDS party (25.8 percent of the vote), followed by the Freedom Movement (12.7 percent of the vote), the Social Democrats (Socialni demokrati – SD) (7.7 percent of the vote) and New Slovenia party (Nova Slovenija – NSi) (3.9 percent of the vote).
In addition to NSi, the following parties would also fall below the electoral threshold: Vesna (3.4 percent of the vote), the Left party (Levica) (3.2 percent of the vote), The Voice of Pensioners of Slovenia (Glas upokojencev Slovenije) (2.6 percent of the vote), Slovenian People’s Party (Slovenska ljudska stranka – SLS) (1.7 percent of the vote), the Truth party (Resni.ca) (1.7 percent of the vote), the Pirates (Pirati) (1.6 percent of the vote) and the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (Demokratska stranka upokojencev Slovenije – DeSUS) (1.4 percent of the vote). 19.9 percent of respondents do not know who they would vote for, 4.2 percent would not vote for any party, and 2.2 percent would vote for other parties. 8 percent of respondents pointed out that they would not vote at all.
Support for parties over time shows that all parliamentary parties enjoyed higher support last November than they do today. However, it can be noted that support for SDS, SD, and the Left parties has increased slightly compared to the measurement in October this year. For the Freedom Movement, support fell from 13.1 percent of the vote to 12.7 percent, and for the NSi party, from 5.1 percent to 3.9 percent. Compared to last year, the share of those who do not know who to vote for has increased significantly. Last year, 11.4 percent of respondents said they did not know who to vote for, while today 19.9 percent said they are still undecided.
The voters who already know who they would vote for
Support for the parties among the voters who already know who they would vote for shows that the SDS party would get 39.3 percent of the vote, the Freedom Movement 19.4 percent, and the SD party 11.7 percent. The parliamentary party NSi would get 6 percent of the vote, Vesna 5.2 percent of the vote, the Left party 4.9 percent of the vote and the Voice of Pensioners 4 percent of the vote. The SLS party (2.5 per cent), Resni.ca (2.5 per cent), Pirates (2.4 per cent) and DeSUS would follow.
Comparing the current results to those from a public opinion poll conducted in June of 2018 shows large fluctuations in support for different parties. Focusing only on the SDS party and the Freedom Movement, we can see that the largest opposition party has enjoyed fairly constant support over the last six years. Just before the last national elections, it saw its last major drop, after which support started to rise until November 2022. Since last March, when a slight drop in support was recorded, support for the party has started to rise again. The Freedom Movement enjoyed a sharp rise in popularity when it was founded, just before the latest elections. During the summer of 2022, support started to fall, until October. In November, support picked up slightly, but the gap in support between the largest government party and the largest opposition party is still huge today.
57.3 percent of respondents will definitely participate in the next national elections, while 11.5 percent will definitely not participate, according to the poll.
Those who will participate in the elections
Among those who will definitely go vote in the next election, the largest share (36.0 percent) would support the SDS party, followed by the Freedom Movement (16.3 percent), SD (7.9 percent), NSi (5.0 party) and the Left (3.3 percent). Among those who are certain to vote and who have already decided who they will vote for, the highest percentage (44.8 percent) would support the SDS party, followed by the Freedom Movement (20.3 percent), SD (9.8 percent), NSi (6.2 percent) and the Left party (4.2 percent).
The cross-section between the demographic variables and the substantive variable shows that SDS voters are mostly men, those belonging to the oldest age group (55 years and over) and individuals with a vocational education. The voters of the Freedom Movement are also dominated by men, those in the oldest age group and individuals with a secondary education. The majority of SD voters are women, individuals in the middle age group (35-54) and those who have completed vocational education. Women also make up the majority of NSi voters. The majority of NSi voters are from the youngest age group (18-34 years) and have a vocational education. Men predominate among the voters of the Left party, as do individuals in the youngest age group and those with the highest level of education (higher education, university education or more).
Undecided voters are dominated by women, individuals in the middle age group and those with the highest level of education.
Just under two-thirds do not support the government
29.1 percent of respondents support the government. Just under two-thirds (61.8 percent) of respondents do not support it. 9.2 percent of respondents answered “I don’t know” when asked whether they support the current government.
The proportion of those who support the government has been declining over time. Last November, 34.4 percent of respondents supported the government, 30.7 percent expressed their support this October, and 29.1 percent still support it today. The proportion of those who do not currently support the government is slightly higher than last November. In October, 62.9 percent of respondents said they did not support the current government. The proportion of those who are undecided about showing support for the current government is increasing over time. Last November, 5.7 percent of respondents were undecided, this October, the number rose to 6.4 percent, and now 9.2 percent are undecided.
The results of the public opinion polls from the last four government mandates also show that the Golob government is well on its way to ending up at the same rating as the former government of Miro Cerar.
The intersection of demographic variables and substantive variables shows that government supporters are dominated by women, individuals in the oldest age group, and those with the highest education. Those who are dissatisfied are dominated by men, individuals in the oldest age group and those who have completed vocational school. Those who cannot decide are dominated by women, individuals in the youngest age group and those with the highest level of education.
The media attacks in the form of three consecutive episodes of the show “Target” (Tarča) on the referendum on the second reactor of the nuclear power plant in Krško, which they tried to present as a new corruption story in every way possible, were directed in particular at the SDS party and the Freedom Movement. The Freedom Movement party was clearly not happy with this coverage, as it contributed to the continuing trend of declining support. Robert Golob, the President of the largest party in the government and Prime Minister, had already expressed his intention not to resign, despite the fact that support for the government as a whole is also visibly declining. In an attempt to correct the public opinion, many believe that he suddenly realised that the new way of charging network charges would be detrimental to the people and the economy. This is why they want to take action, even though on the 18th of October, the largest party in government was still saying how fears of higher electricity bills were unnecessary. The SDS party, which is clearly ahead of the Freedom Movement, was apparently unaffected by the media reports in question.
It is an established party which, unlike the Freedom Movement, has a loyal voter base, but the latter is accustomed to constant negative coverage, especially at the expense of the SDS party president, Janez Janša. As there is a good chance that the Golob government could be followed by a right-wing development government, many point out that the deep state has decided to push for new faces to be elected from the pool of the Freedom Movement and SDS. With new face voters swinging from one face to the other when they see that the promises of the previous new party were too high-flying, it is no wonder that we have such a high proportion of undecided voters. The “new faces” are certainly counting on the votes of the latter. It will thus be interesting to observe what happens in the future.
Meanwhile, there are two parliamentary parties that would likely not be able to cross the electoral threshold if the elections to the National Assembly were to be held this Sunday. In the case of the NSi party, many are likely disappointed by the initial cooperation with the government, while some are also frustrated by the persistence of the same leadership. In the case of the Left party, the result is perhaps the most surprising, as the Golob government seems to have largely followed through on their commitments.
Demographic data
The survey was conducted between the 11th and the 14th of November and included 704 respondents, 50.5 percent of whom were women. The mean age was 55 years, with a standard deviation of 14.5. The oldest age group was the most represented (49.8 percent), the middle age group was slightly less represented (42.5 percent), and the youngest age group was the least represented (7.7 percent). The largest group of respondents indicated that they had completed secondary school (40.5 percent), followed by those who had completed tertiary education or more (37.3 percent), 17.6 percent had completed vocational school, and 4.6 percent had completed primary school or had left primary school incomplete. Most respondents come from a village or hamlet (52.8 percent), followed by a city (31.3 percent) and a smaller town (15.9 percent). Most respondents said they come from the Central Slovenia region (26.3 percent), followed by the Podravje (15.8 percent) and Savinjska (12.0 percent) statistical regions.
Ž. N.
