The latest public opinion poll shows that the Slovenian Democratic Party (Slovenska demokratska stranka – SDS) would be the winner of the European elections. The Parsifal Agency’s poll also shows that the Social Democrats (Socialni demokrati – SD) would get more votes in the election than the ruling Freedom Movement party (Gibanje Svoboda), confirming once again the downward trend in support for the Freedom Movement.
The political parties have not yet presented their candidate lists. However, there has been public speculation as to who might top the candidate lists. Matjaž Nemec‘s speech at this year’s commemoration in Dražgoše has led some to believe that he could be at the top of the Social Democrats’ list.
Media rumours that Lojze Peterle could be at the top of the list of the New Slovenia party (Nova Slovenija – NSi) have been refuted by Peterle himself. Meanwhile, the President of the Slovenian Democratic Party, Janez Janša, suggested a few months ago that representatives with the necessary mileage usually do better on the European floor. Klemen Grošelj and Irena Joveva are the likely contenders for first place on the list of candidates of the ruling Freedom Movement party, while the Speaker of the National Assembly, Urška Klakočar Zupančič, said that it was very unlikely that she would be on the candidate list. Meanwhile, the Left party (Levica) will meet in Ljubljana in February to decide on its candidate for the upcoming European elections. Violeta Tomič was their candidate in the last elections, but she did not make it.
The SDS party on top; the Freedom Movement is losing support
Among the voters who already know who they would vote for, the SDS party would get 29.7 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats 16.1 percent, and the Freedom Movement would come in third place with 13.9 percent support.
The New Slovenia party would come fourth with 9.9 percent of the vote, followed by the far-left Left party with 7.4 percent. A series of extra-parliamentary parties would follow, with Resnica receiving the most votes, followed by Pirates (Pirati), and then Rupar’s pensioners, who founded a party recently.
If undecided voters are also taken into account, the order of the parties does not change. The SDS party would remain at the top with 19.2 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democrats with 10.4 percent and then the Freedom Movement with 9 percent support. Meanwhile, 18.3 percent of voters are still undecided in terms of who they would vote for, while 12.4 percent do not think they will vote.
If we were to measure support only among those who are certain to vote, there would be a slight change in the order of the parties. The SDS party would still be at the top with 32.2 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democrats with 13 percent and the Freedom Movement in third place. The extreme Left party would swing into fourth place, followed by New Slovenia. There are also differences between the extra-parliamentary parties, with the Slovenian National Party (Slovenska nacionalna stranka – SNS) and Vesna ranking higher. Resnica and the Pirates would be further back.
And if we take into account both parameters, namely the identified voters and also only those who will certainly take part in the elections, the results are as follows. The Slovenian Democratic Party would get 38.7 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats 15.7 percent, and the Freedom Movement 12.4 percent. The Left party would come in fourth place with 8.3 percent, and New Slovenia in fifth place with 7.9 percent. Among the extra-parliamentary parties, Rupar’s Voice of Pensioners would do best in this case, followed by the Slovenian National Party and others.
38.2 percent of respondents will definitely take part in the upcoming European Parliament elections. 16.4 percent of respondents will definitely not take part.
Who will suffer the biggest losses because of the affairs?
In the future, it will be interesting to see how the controversial purchase of the new court building on Litijska Street in Ljubljana will affect support for the Social Democrats. This will probably also depend on how long Minister Dominika Švarc Pipan stays in office. In addition to the affair centred on the Ministry of Justice, there is also the “missing computers” affair. The Minister for Digitalisation, Emilija Stojmenova Duh, was a member of the Social Democrats, but just before her appointment as Minister, she switched to the Freedom Movement party, with which the general public now associates her. The affair is, therefore, primarily damaging the party of the new face, Robert Golob. It is worth noting that the Social Democrats have a more consolidated electoral base than the Freedom Movement party.
The survey included 914 respondents, 48.9 percent of whom were women. The average respondent was 52.2 years old. Most respondents were in the oldest age group. Most of the respondents had completed secondary education (35.7 percent). Parsifal collected the data using a telephone survey method via mobile phones.
Ž. K.
