The informal conversation between Trump and Putin on the possible end of the war in Ukraine has caused quite a stir in the global public. The European political summit is outraged that the European Union has been left out of the negotiations. Unwise defence and economic policies have made Europe irrelevant and impotent.
Last week, US President Donald Trump contacted Russian President Vladimir Putin to see if there is any chance for a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. This is, of course, no surprise. During last year’s election campaign, Trump made peace in Ukraine one of the priorities of his incoming administration. However, this preliminary step was already enough to send the European political summit into mild hysterics, and they have already begun to accuse Trump of intending to betray his allies and sell out Ukraine.
This reaction is, of course, not surprising. Indeed, a good part of the European political top hates Trump and his team. Many of them did not even hide this during the US election campaign last year. They are outraged, however, because Trump has bypassed them and contacted Putin directly, and their egos have been bruised. Most importantly, they are afraid that their voters will also realise what Trump, Putin and the Chinese, and whoever else, have known for a long time: that the European Union is powerless and therefore irrelevant.
Trump puts the USA first
Unlike European leaders, Trump puts the USA first. He announced this a thousand times during his campaign and already demonstrated it in his first term. In fact, all US Presidents put America first, but Republican Presidents are even more direct about it. As far as Trump is concerned, in his eyes, the most dangerous threat to the US at this time is China, and he intends to clip its wings thoroughly.
But the progressive madness that has swept the West over the last three decades has also weakened the US, but not nearly as much as it has affected Europe. Trump is aware that it would be a risky confrontation with China if the US had to engage in many other critical areas, and he intends to close these chapters as soon as possible. The exception, of course, is Israel, which, thanks to the strong Jewish lobby, the US supports unreservedly. The last time the Americans let Israel down was during the Suez crisis in 1956. Incidentally, Israel is quite good at helping itself and is more than capable of dealing with the surrounding enemies on its own, so the presence of US forces in the region is just a buffer in case something goes extremely wrong.
Of course, the fact that Trump has contacted Putin does not mean that tomorrow, the war will be over, and Russia will keep half of Ukraine. For starters, the Ukrainians would have to agree to that, which is unacceptable to the majority of them. Secondly, the Americans have so far financed the Ukrainian side in the war with tens of billions of dollars. Not out of altruism, of course, but because they hope to gain access to deposits of various valuable minerals. If these deposits were to remain in Russian
hands, all this money would be spent on nothing. It would be the same if we simply left Ukraine in the lurch. In that case, the billions of dollars in post-war reconstruction deals in Ukraine would also have been scrapped. Last but not least, after the Afghan debacle, the US cannot afford another defeat. A unilateral withdrawal or surrender to Putin, whatever Putin might wish, would be a defeat in the eyes of the whole world.
Putin needs an acceptable peace
Express peace is therefore not to be expected, especially since the Kremlin, when asked by the media when Putin and Trump would meet, said it did not know whether that would happen “in a few weeks or a few months”. From this answer, one could conclude two things. Firstly, that Putin is not satisfied with the outcome offered in the preliminary talks. Secondly, that Putin is not exactly the master of his own will. Indeed, many analysts point out that, only recently, Chinese President Xi said that the Russia-China cooperation pact “has no limits”. This means that China is financing Russian belligerence in Ukraine. And from the Chinese point of view, it is best if the war in Ukraine lasts as long as possible; if the Americans have to deal with Russia and Ukraine, they will not have time to deal with China. Moreover, the longer China finances Russia, the more dependent Russia becomes on China.
Of course, many in Moscow are not happy with this relationship, especially not the most powerful clique in the Kremlin, the so-called siloviki. This is a clique that comes from the military, intelligence and police structures, people who are used to ordering others around, and not being ordered around.
Putin is thus walking on thin ice: if he subjugates Russia to China, the siloviki will get rid of him – literally. If he pisses off China and is left without funding, he will be forced into an ignominious retreat and – again – will be disposed of. He must reach a compromise with Ukraine, which he will nevertheless be able to present at home as a success, as a victory.
Irrelevant, impotent and outraged
Meanwhile, the European summit is, as already said, outraged that Trump has bypassed them and gone straight to Putin. But what can Europe bring to the negotiating table? The sad truth is that it can bring practically nothing.
Since the end of the Cold War, Europe has been in the throes of an orgy of self-disarmament. The armed forces have been reduced to a minimum, conscription has disappeared, young people turn up their noses at military service, patriotism is considered to be something regressive, even evil. Even the army that exists in most European countries is minimally equipped, some of the weapons are obsolete, there are practically no stocks, and therefore, there is not much training. The military industry is reduced, development is minimal. Instead of the army, money is going into all sorts of progressive nonsense, and security is the last concern of European politicians, if it is a concern at all. Masses of migrants from the Third World are walking across our borders without papers, sowing violence and even terrorist attacks in European cities, but instead of responding with a fist of steel, Europe’s political top brass is looking for excuses to justify the scum who stab children in parks or plough their cars into innocent pedestrians.
Europe is capitalising on US achievements while hypocritically denouncing “American interventionism”. But when the US declares that it no longer intends to support the war in Ukraine alone indefinitely and calls on Europe to shoulder its share of the burden, there are cries and groans. Those whose memories go back beyond the last reality show will recall that Trump, in the middle of his last term, warned the European allies that they had to increase defence spending, which they were obliged to do anyway because of their membership in NATO, but most of the members did not stick to it. He warned that turbulent times were coming, but European leaders made fun of him and had a sweet laugh. And so did the media and the “highly educated and well-informed European public”. Six years later, the Asians are knocking on Europe’s door.
The economic situation is no better. Fifteen years ago, the EU was economically on par with the US; now, it is half as weak, and this is of its own making. Following the follies of the green transition, frenzied regulation and taxation have destroyed European industry and energy. In the era of EEC – the European Economic Community, European agriculture influenced world prices with its food surplus, and today, although the European Union has seen the arrival of new Member States with their huge agricultural potential, we are increasingly dependent on food imports. We are also stagnating in the field of science and development, as European scientists leave our continent for friendlier environments. We have therefore given way to our competitors, especially China and India, and we are still sending them development aid! It is unprecedented madness, and it is no wonder that no one takes us seriously, because, in their eyes, we are complete cowards.
So, the European political leadership should tuck away its wounded ego and indignation and get on with the job of making Europe great again. Only then will it, too, be able to sunbathe at the negotiating tables and sort out the world’s problems. Until then, it will be impotent and irrelevant. And outraged.
Bogdan Sajovic
