Slovenian politicians are officially on the side of the European Union, the global West and NATO when it comes to Russia and its war of conquest in Ukraine. But that is true only on the surface. Slovenian politicians are otherwise very reconciliatory with the Kremlin. Not only the “peacemakers” Türk and Kučan, even current politicians have often dangerously walked the line of flirtation with Moscow. Let us recall the Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Tanja Fajon, saying that she could not imagine a European security architecture without Russia, and European Commissioner Marta Kos telling the Slovenian authorities not to neglect good relations with Russia (even after the start of the war of conquest).
To the astonishment of many, Tanja Fajon did not summon the Russian ambassador to questioning, which would have been the diplomatic minimum, after the Slovenian security and intelligence services discovered two Russian agents who were spying against the West. Prime Minister Robert Golob also said in Brussels, to the astonishment of many, that “neither side” wanted negotiations (thus equating an invaded Ukraine with Russia). Such behaviour is seemingly inconsistent with logic and damaging to the international credibility of the current government.
But beneath the surface lie the real reasons for Slovenian politicians flirting with fascist Russia – in the end, it is not relations with Russia, the Russian chapel or the ancient friendship between Slovenian leftists and the Russian descendants of the executioners of 1917 that matter, but only money. In February 2023, the Slovenian Foreign Minister paid an official visit to the relatively unknown Kyrgyz Republic and praised the huge export potential of this poor ex-Soviet country. But why is Kyrgyzstan so important for Slovenia?
Some time ago, we reported that Slovenia is one of the few countries where exports to Russia have increased since the invasion of Ukraine – in most European and other countries, they have decreased. Now, the mechanism by which Slovenian companies – with the apparent blessing of the authorities – evade international sanctions has come to light. The key country in this scheme is the former Soviet Republic of Kyrgyzstan.
The main channel for evading Western sanctions
Earlier this year, the media outlet Euronews Business investigated how Russia uses Kyrgyzstan as a key third country to maintain trade relations with various European countries. The EU, the UK and the USA, as well as a number of other international actors, have imposed a wave of sanctions against Moscow over the past few years over the invasion of Ukraine. Despite the increasing number and severity of sanctions, Russia continues to look for ways to maintain trade with Europe.
Kyrgyzstan is one of Russia’s most sincere partners in the region. It is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which is led by Russia. It is a landlocked country, heavily dependent on remittances from Russia, which have been interrupted by the war in Ukraine.
The Brookings Institute has used International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on trade flows to show how several countries have been exporting to Central Asian countries in the last few years, and are thus suspected of re-exporting to Russia. Kyrgyzstan stood out in particular, as it has seen a sharp increase in global and, above all, European exports to the country since March 2022, when the Ukrainian war was already underway.
How is Russia using Kyrgyzstan to maintain trade relations with Europe?
Kyrgyzstan, a small mountainous country in landlocked Central Asia, has recently found global notoriety, as its vast trade partnership with Russia has come under increasing scrutiny. Robert Khachatryan, CEO and founder of Freight Right Global Logistics, told Euronews: “Kyrgyzstan has emerged as a critical conduit for Russia to maintain trade with Europe despite the current sanctions. Kyrgyzstan exports to Russia have skyrocketed from 393 million US dollars (352.8 million euros) in 2021 to more than 1.07 billion dollars (960 million euros) in 2022, showing a significant uptick in trade activities that allow Russia to circumvent sanctions.”
The country has seen a staggering 953 percent increase in exports to the European Union, mainly due to its strategic position as a transit point.
Irina Tsukerman, President of Scarab Rising, a security strategy consultancy, told Euronews: “One of the most effective ways Russia uses Kyrgyzstan to bypass sanctions and export-import controls are re-exports of goods. These sanctions have made it more difficult for Russia to access high-tech goods, and have increased the cost of doing business with Russia. Kyrgyzstan is extremely dependent on Russia and has few alternatives for trade. Countries like Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia have become hubs for re-exporting goods to Russia. This is because trade within the Eurasian Customs Union (EACU) is not subject to mandatory customs declarations and inspections. That also facilitates the flow of Russian goods to Europe. Kyrgyzstan’s re-export of vehicles to Russia has helped Russian consumers access the latest car models, which has limited economic pain and reduced the likelihood of a backlash against Putin.”
Slovenia has also increased trade with Kyrgyzstan – why?
Countries such as Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Italy, the Czech Republic and Serbia have been identified by the Brookings Institution as some of the countries whose exports to Kyrgyzstan have increased since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. As such, they could potentially continue to trade with Russia via Kyrgyzstan. However, trade between Kyrgyzstan and Russia-friendly countries – Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania – has increased even more. Slovenia is also among the countries that have increased trade with Kyrgyzstan, although its official policy is pro-Western. But as we have already mentioned – this is true only in declaratory terms.
Meanwhile, export figures show that Slovenia is the country where international trade with Kyrgyzstan has increased sharply.
As the data show, exports from Slovenia to Kyrgyzstan have quadrupled. It is impossible to explain such a jump in exports to a relatively insignificant country in any other way than that Slovenian exporters (with the support of politicians) are deliberately avoiding Western sanctions and sending goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Tania Fajon’s cynical visit is, therefore, quite understandable from this point of view.
“Kyrgyzstan has great export potential for Slovenian companies. The Minister’s official visit is aimed at creating new opportunities for economic and political cooperation between the two countries,” the Slovenian Foreign Minister said at the time. While making a mockery of international sanctions.
Who are Slovenia’s Russophile businessmen?
Although our socialists and pseudo-liberals want to appear as Westerners in every way, they are, in fact, true Russophiles. It is important to realise that the link between Russia and the Slovenian left is more than 80 years old. The fact that relations have been good is evidenced, among other things, by the awards that have been given. In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the Order of Friendship to Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković and Anja Kopač Mrak, and even before that, to the first Slovenian ambassador to Moscow and president of the Slovenia-Russia Association, Saša Geržina, as well as the heads of the companies Krka and Riko, Jože Colarič and Janez Škrabec, and the former director of Krka, Miloš Kovačič, who passed away in 2016. Only Kopač Mrak returned the Order of Friendship in protest at the end of February last year, as did Lieutenant Colonel Marko Hlastec, who expressed his indignation at Russia’s attack on the independent and sovereign Republic of Ukraine without any hesitation.
When we talk about lobbies, networks of influence and their business in Slovenia, we cannot ignore Janez Škrabec. Businessmen from the association Forum 21, such as Škrabec, who claims to be a Marxist and a Christian who believes in God, and who admits that Milan Kučan has a great influence on him, apparently do not care about respect for human rights, but are more concerned with profitability. For example, Škrabec is happily doing business with Russia and its friendly country, Belarus, ruled by the autocrat Alexander Lukashenko. When unrest erupted in the country two years ago because Lukashenko won the election once again, we reported that Škrabec had done more than 310 million euros worth of business in Belarus in the last ten years.
Many have warned of the continued economic links with Russia
Many have been pointing out the latent left-wing sympathy for the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war, including our own media outlet, and with good reasons. One of them is the incredible growth of imports from Russia since the beginning of the attack on Ukraine. Namely, import from Russia has increased by more than 300 percent since the 24th of February 2022 (i.e. since the start of the invasion). The increase is by far the highest in the European Union.
It seems that Slovenian businessmen are using Kyrgyzstan as the main stepping stone for smooth business with Russia. Meanwhile, Slovenian policy on the international scene is feigning a commitment to Euro-Atlantic ties, which are shallow and declaratory. We can only see what the real intentions of both politics and the economy tied to politics are when we follow the money flow.
M. I.
