Prime Minister Janez Janša was a guest on the programme Odmevi plus on TV Slovenija 1, talking about the latest developments related to the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
On the programme, Prime Minister Janša said that Putin could not win the war in Ukraine. As regards talks between Russia and Ukraine, he said that they were merely about getting a feel for one another and serious negotiations would only begin once an agreement to halt the fighting was reached. He added that the two sides were lightyears apart in their views.
When asked whether it would be a long, exhausting and brutal war or a war that ended with an agreement, the Prime Minister said that the Russian side was not prepared for such a war, calling attention to the fact that its predecessor, the Soviet Union, had already lost such a war in Afghanistan, despite having overwhelming advantages. “At this moment, each day that Ukraine holds out means a greater chance of a cease-fire and serious negotiations.”
Russia cannot endure the sanctions in place right now without far-reaching consequences undergoing a complete change, not even in the medium term, said the Prime Minister. According to him, the sanctions are designed to cause the most damage to those who provide President Putin with key support, people with billions of euros in Swiss banks and private jets at international airports.
“The main thing is that there has been a turnaround in the European Union. The European Union of today is lightyears away from what it was but a week ago.” Mr Janša said that Putin had made two big miscalculations. The first was that Ukraine would fall within a few days, much like what they believed would happen in Slovenia in 1991. The second was that the West’s threat of sanctions would not go much further than the sanctions imposed after his escapade in Georgia in 2008 and after the occupation of Crimea. Both turned out different in strategic terms, and Putin can no longer win this war.
He also mentioned the assessments made by intelligence services that Ukraine would not be able to defend itself, with the United States of America advising the Ukrainian president to leave the country. All assessments proved wrong, just like in the case of Slovenia in 1991, added the Prime Minister. He went on to say that, when he told his European colleagues last week that the European Union would be sending weapons to Ukraine by the following week, everyone laughed. Not even three days later, the decision was reached to do just that. As regards the use of nuclear weapons, he said that it did not mean Putin would pick up a bomb and throw it on something. “In short, it is a little more complicated than most people imagine.” As for the increased state of alertness, he said that it was a sign of weakness rather than of strength. According to him, it is not something you do if you are winning a conventional fight, you do it when things go wrong or when things are not going according to plan.
Prime Minister Janša explained that in the letter written together with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, they had proposed the same fast-track procedure for negotiations and accession to the European Union not only for Ukraine, but also for Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkan countries which are not yet members of the EU. The letter was supported by 13 countries. “This is not just about Ukraine. If Ukraine falls, others will follow. The letter is a strategic response which does not increase the risk.”
Since December, when news of complications and higher prices spread, Europe has been working on finding alternative solutions. The Prime Minister went on to stress that there are sufficient supplies for this winter. “In this war, the Russian economy stands to lose much more as it cannot replace the European markets even in the medium-term due to its dependence on energy sources.”
On Ukraine’s potential European Union membership, he explained that granting Ukraine candidate country status would above all give Ukraine the hope that it would not be forgotten.
Furthermore, he said that there would be economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, but Slovenia was prepared for them. “We have ensured liquidity until the end of the year. All the borrowing needed was done by the Slovenian Treasury on favourable terms. Last year saw economic growth exceeding all forecasts.”
The strength of the Slovenian economy was underestimated, he added. “It is a fact that the state invests in projects bringing added value and new jobs, and that, in terms of recovery and transition, Slovenia excelled as a gazelle. If, on top of that, we manage to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles, we can surpass the EU average in real time.” When asked about Sberbank, he replied that the problem was expected to be resolved as early as on Wednesday and that it affects 36,000 people with accounts at this bank which, as he had previously mentioned, was in liquidation.
On the topic of refugees, Prime Minister Janša explained that Slovenians represent 0.47 % of the EU’s population. “If we compare this with the potential influx of refugees, Slovenia’s share would be ten times smaller than 200,000. The figure of 200,000 refers to the maximum capacity that Slovenia can provide in the event of a natural disaster and was not calculated for this specific case.” He also added that Poland, saying that it can cope on its own, opposed the activation of the solidarity mechanism.
